A Study on Trends and Instability of Finger Millets in India

Abstract

The present study aims to analyze the trends and instability in the area, production, and yield of finger millet (Eleusine coracana) cultivation in India during the period 1994–95 to 2023–24. It examines the effectiveness of government interventions and identifies patterns of growth and volatility that affect the sustainability of finger millet cultivation. Despite policy support, the area and production of millets particularly finger millet have shown a steady long-term decline. The study objective is to analyze the trends and assess the instability in the area, production, and yield of finger millet cultivation in India. The study is based on the secondary data source, collected from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare (Government of India), and Agricultural Statistics at a Glance report. The study used statistical tools such as the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), trend linear regression, and the Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI) to examine growth dynamics and variability. The study results revealed that a declining trend in the area of cultivation (-27.17), production (-27.64) and also the yield of finger millet slightly increasing trend (8.51) at statistically 5 % level. The study also found both cultivated area (CAGR -1.23%) and total production (CAGR-1.12%), reflecting an inverse trend in finger millet cultivation over the years. Whereas yield rose slightly (CAGR 0.12%), the growth was small, reflecting the fact that productivity gains have flattened off over time. The production varied most of the three metrics (CDVI 15.01), followed by yield (11.39) and area of cultivation (8.83) finger millet in India. The results found a declining trend and growth patterns in area, significant variability in production and a slightly increasing level of finger millet yield, emphasizing the crop’s weakness despite policy interventions. Hence, the study suggested that the government should promote and support policy reform towards region-specific policies, upgrade market access and support for resilient millet farming structures in India. The present study also recommended that the provision of a minimum of one kg of millets per household through the Public Distribution System (PDS), along with institutional procurement and value chain enhancement, can significantly strengthen finger millet’s contribution, crop insurance scheme for millet crops and sustainable agriculture. The study pointed out the necessity for future studies to conduct field-level analysis and state-wise comparisons, along with analyses of environmental, economic, and farmer-level factors and market conditions, to develop targeted strategies for enhancing the resilience and sustainability of millet cultivation in rainfed and marginal areas.