A Study on Sectoral Loan Forecasting and its Risk Exposure at KSIDC, Thiruvananthapuram

Abstract

This study analyzes sectoral loan forecasting and its risk exposure at Kerala State Industrial Development Corporation Ltd. (KSIDC), Thiruvananthapuram. The study is based on secondary data collected from sector-wise loan statements. It focuses on five major sectors: Food, Health, Hospitality & Tourism, Metals and Pharmaceuticals & Medical Products. Analytical tools such as Sectoral Share Analysis, Growth Rate Analysis, Trend Analysis and Regression Analysis were used to examine loan distribution, forecast future lending patterns, and evaluate sector-wise growth patterns. The findings indicate that the Food sector shows steady growth and strong future lending potential. The Pharmaceuticals sector emerged as a fast-growing area with increasing future importance. The study concludes that effective sector-wise credit monitoring, balanced diversification, and forecasting-based lending decisions are essential for improving portfolio quality and reducing credit risk.